铝价稳步增长，这次轮到美国着急了，中国握全产业链优势！

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing significant price increases, with aluminum prices expected to reach $3,000 per ton by December 2025, while U.S. Midwest spot aluminum prices are nearing $4,800, highlighting a severe supply shortage and rising production costs [3][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Aluminum consumption is approximately 77 million tons annually, which is 2.8 times that of copper, indicating its critical role in various industries, including automotive and data centers [3]. - The U.S. aluminum inventory is alarmingly low, sufficient for only 35 days of consumption, exacerbated by a 6.18% year-on-year decline in aluminum imports during the first seven months of 2025 [5][8]. - The U.S. aluminum premium has surged to $0.881 per pound, a 155% increase since the beginning of the year, impacting manufacturing costs across various sectors [10]. Group 2: Production Challenges - The production of aluminum is highly energy-intensive, requiring 13,600 to 14,400 kWh per ton, with electricity costs in the U.S. accounting for over 40% of production costs due to rising demand from data centers [7]. - China dominates the global aluminum supply chain, controlling nearly 60% of alumina and electrolytic aluminum production, while the U.S. has only four remaining smelters with a combined capacity of about 2.6 million tons, insufficient to meet domestic demand [8][12]. - The global aluminum supply is projected to face a shortfall of 95,550 tons from January to October 2025, with forecasts suggesting a potential increase in the deficit to 800,000 tons by 2026 [10]. Group 3: Trade and Policy Implications - U.S. tariffs on aluminum, which increased from 25% to 50%, have backfired, leading to reduced imports and increased domestic prices, raising questions about the effectiveness of protectionist measures [5][12]. - The aluminum market's dynamics reveal a paradox where attempts to safeguard domestic industries through tariffs may accelerate disconnection from global resource networks [12].