2025年，油市地缘政治风险溢价消失的一年

Core Viewpoint - The global oil market remained surprisingly stable despite multiple geopolitical crises in 2025, indicating a new norm of calm in an era of abundant energy [1][5]. Group 1: Geopolitical Events and Market Response - Key geopolitical events included the return of Donald Trump to the White House and military actions involving Israel and Iran, which were expected to disrupt oil prices significantly [1]. - Despite initial volatility, the oil price response was muted, with Brent crude oil futures rising from $69 per barrel on June 12 to a peak of $78.85 a week later, before returning to pre-conflict levels by June 24 [2][3]. Group 2: Oil Price Trends - In 2025, oil futures fluctuated within a narrow range of $60 to $81 per barrel, which was tighter compared to previous years, indicating reduced sensitivity to geopolitical tensions [3]. - The price spike observed in early 2022, when oil reached nearly $130 per barrel due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, was not replicated in 2025 despite similar geopolitical concerns [3][4]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The stability in oil prices can be attributed to a significant increase in global oil and gas supply, primarily driven by the U.S., which became the largest producer and exporter of oil and LNG [5]. - OPEC and its allies, including Russia and Kazakhstan, ended production cuts and increased output throughout 2025, contributing to a projected surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day by 2026 [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - While the current supply situation appears stable, there are concerns that complacency could pose risks, as OPEC may reverse its production increases in response to changing market conditions [7]. - Actual supply disruptions would be necessary to trigger significant market reactions, as geopolitical fears alone are insufficient to impact the market in a period of ample supply [7].