Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai initiates coverage of Meili Tianyuan Medical Health (02373) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 43.7, highlighting the company's dual-driven growth strategy of "internal growth + external expansion" [1] Group 1: Business Model - Meili Tianyuan adopts a "Double Beauty + Double Health" collaborative business model, creating a comprehensive health ecosystem that includes brands like Meili Tianyuan, Nairui'er, Xiuker, and Yanyuan, covering a full lifecycle of services from lifestyle beauty to high-end non-surgical medical aesthetics and health management [2] Group 2: Growth Strategy - The company enhances operational and integration capabilities through a dual-driven approach. Internally, it utilizes 38 self-developed systems for refined operations, maintaining a customer repurchase rate above 80% and customer acquisition costs below 2%. Externally, it leverages strong cash flow for strategic acquisitions like Nairui'er and Siyuanli, significantly increasing membership and net profit margins [3] Group 3: Industry Trends - Meili Tianyuan is positioned to lead the transformation of the beauty industry, capitalizing on trends of branding, chain development, and digitalization. Its multi-brand strategy and extensive store network allow it to strengthen its presence in high-tier cities while expanding customer value through the "Double Beauty + Double Health" ecosystem [4] Group 4: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported strong performance with direct store traffic reaching 920,000, a year-on-year increase of 47.8%. Active members grew to 120,000, up 46.5% year-on-year. Total revenue reached RMB 1,459 million, a 28.2% increase, with adjusted net profit at RMB 191 million and an adjusted net profit margin of 13.1%, showcasing robust profitability under macroeconomic pressures [5] Group 5: Valuation - The company has significant growth potential driven by both internal growth and acquisition capabilities. Using a discount rate of 10% and a perpetual growth rate of 3%, the estimated fair value is HKD 10.3 billion, with a target price of HKD 43.7, indicating a 65.4% upside from the previous closing price, corresponding to PE ratios of 29.8 and 24.5 for 2025 and 2026 respectively [6]
第一上海：首次覆盖美丽田园医疗健康(02373)予“买入”评级 目标价43.7港元