Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-22 22:48Group 1 - The core driving logic of coal price trends is the supply-demand pattern, with the current rapid decline in coal prices expected to have limited space, estimating a bottom range of 680-700 RMB/ton [1][2] - The demand for coal is currently at the median level of the past five years, with a recent downward trend in port inventories, although future weather conditions should be monitored [2] - The coal sector's cyclical bottom is confirmed in Q2 2025, with a reversal point in the supply-demand pattern, and expectations for a new upward cycle starting in H2 2026 for coal and downstream thermal power demand [1][2] Group 2 - As of December 19, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 721 RMB/ton, a decrease of 42 RMB/ton (-5.5%) from the previous week, with domestic supply stable and imports continuing to decline [2] - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port is 1700 RMB/ton, an increase of 50 RMB/ton (3.0%), indicating a potential for demand to remain strong despite the seasonal downturn [3] - The average daily iron water production has slightly decreased, but demand is expected to remain robust during the off-season [3]