2027年底可能再上涨38%，高盛唱多中国股票的背后逻辑是什么？

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown significant growth in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 17%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 28%, and the ChiNext Index approaching a 50% increase [2] - The improvement in both internal and external environments has contributed to the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets leading global market trends [2] - The correlation between A-share market performance and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has been observed, with a notable bull market starting in late September 2024 following a rate cut announcement [2] Group 2 - The internal environment is characterized by the continuous release of technological dividends and improving corporate profitability, which is expected to enhance the investment value of the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027 [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 14% growth in corporate earnings in 2026 and a further 12% in 2027, with a potential valuation expansion of around 10% [3] - The Chinese stock market could see a potential increase of 38% by the end of 2027, leading to a market capitalization growth to approximately 140 trillion to 150 trillion RMB [3] Group 3 - The estimated total market capitalization of the Chinese stock market could reach about 20 trillion USD, which still shows a significant gap compared to the US stock market [4] - The US stock market's total capitalization is approximately 70 trillion USD, accounting for nearly 60% of the global total [5] - The valuation of the A-share market is significantly lower than that of the US market, with the average price-to-earnings ratio of the Shanghai market around 16 times, nearly half of the US market's average [5] Group 4 - The upward potential of the A-share market is contingent on continuous improvement in corporate profitability and maintaining ample market liquidity, with daily trading volumes exceeding 2.5 trillion RMB [6] - Market expansion and stock price increases are key factors influencing total market capitalization, with stock price increases benefiting shareholders while market expansion may dilute existing shareholders' rights [6]