独家专访诺奖得主罗伯特·恩格尔：在不确定性时代解构风险

Core Viewpoint - The next financial crisis may be triggered by inflation, particularly due to fluctuating tariff policies, which could lead to significant market downturns if inflation rates remain high [1][12]. Group 1: Inflation and Economic Policies - Tariffs are likely to cause inflation, and if inflation persists, the Federal Reserve may struggle to decide between raising or lowering interest rates, leading to a collapse in bond prices and a significant drop in the stock market [1][12]. - The year 2025 is expected to be tumultuous, with frequent changes in tariff policies and significant uncertainty in the financial markets, despite a strong market performance overall [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Asset Management - Despite various global risks, including geopolitical tensions and climate change, financial markets have remained robust, supported by factors such as optimism, Federal Reserve backing, and tax cuts [4]. - Investors may consider holding cash or other assets that are less sensitive to economic fluctuations as a buffer against unpredictable events [2][16]. Group 3: Gold and Currency Dynamics - The rise in gold prices is largely driven by central banks diversifying their reserves away from the dollar, indicating a potential shift in global currency reliance [5][6]. - The dollar may continue to depreciate, and there is speculation about the emergence of a multi-currency system, with currencies like the yuan or euro potentially gaining prominence [6]. Group 4: Climate Change and Regulatory Impact - The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and subsequent deregulation efforts are seen as attempts to diminish the visibility of climate issues, which could have long-term implications for environmental policies and market stability [7]. Group 5: Systemic Risks and Financial Stability - Current assessments indicate that while systemic risks in the banking sector appear manageable, ongoing monitoring is essential, particularly regarding climate-related risks [8]. - The volatility of AI stocks raises concerns about potential bubbles, but the overall impact on the market may not mirror past crises like the internet bubble [9][10]. Group 6: Future Outlook and Political Influence - The upcoming midterm elections in the U.S. are expected to introduce market volatility as investors speculate on potential shifts in political power and their economic implications [18]. - The uncertainty surrounding current U.S. policies, particularly those affecting immigration and scientific research, poses risks to innovation and economic growth [18].