美联储1月议息预测：维持不变的概率81%

Core Viewpoint - The latest predictions from Polymarket indicate a high probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January, with a significant chance of rate cuts in the future [1] Interest Rate Predictions - Probability of maintaining current interest rates in January is 81% [1] - Probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 18% [1] - Probability of a 50+ basis point rate cut is 1.4% [1] - Probability of a rate hike of 25+ basis points is less than 1% [1] Future Rate Cut Expectations - Probability of cumulative rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by 2026: - 50 basis points: 23% [1] - 75 basis points: 21% [1] - 100 basis points: 16% [1] - 125 basis points: 11% [1]