双重支撑 铂、钯期价涨停！警惕短线回调

Core Viewpoint - The prices of platinum and palladium futures have surged, driven by macroeconomic liquidity and tightening supply in the physical market, with platinum futures reaching 568.45 CNY per gram and palladium futures at 508.45 CNY per gram, marking increases of 6.99% and 7% respectively [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties are key supports for the price increases of platinum and palladium [1] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of downward risk, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, which may further support the Fed's easing measures [2] - Inflation is gradually receding, with the core CPI falling to 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, indicating a potential slowdown in consumer spending [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Platinum supply is expected to remain tight, with a projected supply gap of 46.4 tons by 2025, providing upward momentum for prices [3] - The palladium market has shifted to a state of oversupply, with expectations of a further increase in surplus to approximately 16.9 tons by 2026, which may exert downward pressure on prices [3] - The demand for platinum is supported by its applications in hydrogen energy and stable industrial uses, despite structural impacts from electric vehicle developments [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current price increases of platinum and palladium reflect strong macroeconomic expectations, but there is a risk of rapid corrections if market sentiment shifts [3][4] - The ongoing adjustments in the EU regarding the ban on fuel vehicles may improve future demand expectations for platinum and palladium [2] - In the absence of clear negative factors, precious metals are expected to maintain strength in the short term, although their volatility remains relatively low [3]