鲍韶山：为什么西方鼓吹人民币加速升值，效果可能适得其反？

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that calls for the rapid appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) by Western institutions, including the IMF, may have adverse effects on Western economies and could lead to increased social instability. Instead of pushing for a quick appreciation, Western advocates should appreciate China's strategy of maintaining RMB stability [1][6][10]. Group 1: RMB Appreciation Pressure - Western economies, particularly the U.S., have long pressured China to appreciate its currency, viewing it as a solution to trade imbalances. This perspective is rooted in neoclassical economic theory, which suggests that RMB appreciation would make Chinese exports more expensive and reduce trade surpluses [1][6]. - The IMF's annual report suggests measures to promote RMB appreciation and reduce China's current account surplus, indicating ongoing pressure for a more market-oriented exchange rate [5][9]. Group 2: Foreign Value Added (FVA) Mechanism - China's export model is deeply integrated into global value chains, with a significant portion of export value derived from imported intermediate goods. This creates a paradox where RMB appreciation could lower the cost of these imports, potentially enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese exporters [7][8]. - The OECD's TiVA database shows that in key export sectors like electronics (35-42%), machinery (30-37%), and chemicals (25-41%), FVA remains high, indicating reliance on imported inputs [7]. Group 3: Asymmetric Impact on the U.S. Economy - The article highlights that while RMB appreciation may provide a buffer for Chinese exporters, the U.S. economy lacks similar protections, leading to increased input costs without offsetting benefits. This dynamic could exacerbate inflation and widen the trade deficit for U.S. companies [11][12]. - U.S. manufacturing, which relies heavily on domestic content (85-90%), faces challenges as imported intermediate goods become more expensive without equivalent cost relief [11][12]. Group 4: RMB Internationalization and Strategic Implications - The ongoing internationalization of the RMB adds a strategic dimension to the appreciation paradox, allowing China to insulate key markets from exchange rate fluctuations while enhancing its competitiveness. By 2025, RMB settlements in cross-border transactions are expected to exceed 50% [16][19]. - The increasing use of RMB in trade with countries in the Global South provides a buffer against the adverse effects of appreciation, allowing Chinese exporters to maintain stable income while insulating buyers from price increases [22][23]. Group 5: Conclusion on RMB Appreciation Calls - The article concludes that calls for rapid RMB appreciation may inadvertently strengthen China's export position rather than achieve the intended rebalancing of trade. The structural differences between the Chinese and U.S. economies amplify the risks of adverse effects on Western interests [24].