Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-23 01:30Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a power capacity market mechanism is urgent to ensure the balance of the power system under high proportions of renewable energy, as various power generation entities face challenges in cost recovery [1][2] Group 1: Necessity of Capacity Market - The rapid marketization of renewable energy necessitates proactive measures for the power capacity market [1] - The power system faces significant challenges in maintaining balance with a high proportion of renewable energy [1] - The profitability models for new energy storage and virtual power plants are lacking, indicating the need for a capacity market to incentivize flexible resources [1] Group 2: Market Sufficiency - The transition from a "single energy market" to a multi-faceted system including energy, capacity, and ancillary services is ongoing [2] - The capacity market is essential for ensuring reliability and economic operation of the power system [2] Group 3: Capacity Market Mechanism - The capacity market is a market-driven incentive mechanism supported by administrative power [3] - Current compensation mechanisms primarily rely on thermal power and pumped storage, with new energy storage being explored at the local level [3] - Compared to other mechanisms, the capacity market offers higher resource allocation efficiency and effective guidance for installed capacity [3] Group 4: Policy Challenges - The design of the capacity market faces moral hazards such as inflated bids and measurement biases [4] - Conflicts of interest exist among power generation, grid management, and user pricing stability [4] - Hardware limitations include the inflexibility of traditional units and the saturation of inter-provincial transmission channels [4] Group 5: Policy Expectations - Short-term recovery of traditional base-load power generation costs will primarily rely on capacity compensation prices [5] - A unified national capacity market framework is expected to be established in the medium term, incorporating more reliable power supply entities [5] - Long-term goals include the integration of the capacity market with energy, ancillary services, green electricity markets, and financial derivatives [5] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - Traditional thermal power and energy storage are expected to benefit directly from the capacity compensation mechanism [6] - There is potential for expansion in inter-provincial transmission capacity and significant profit opportunities for virtual power plants [6] - The supporting industries such as smart metering devices and power trading software are likely to benefit indirectly [6]