东海证券：电子行业2026年上半年料继续向上 关注AI服务器、端侧及设备材料等细分赛道

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its upward cycle in the first half of 2026, with structural growth opportunities primarily in AI servers, AI edge computing, and equipment materials. Attention should be paid to storage price fluctuations and the sustainability of high investment and demand recovery in the second half of 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Semiconductor Industry Overview - The overall cycle of the semiconductor industry is currently upward, with high growth driven by segments such as AI, storage, and equipment [2]. - The global semiconductor sales from January to October 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 21.19%, while silicon wafer shipment area increased by 4.99% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025 [2]. - Storage module prices have increased between 140% to 600% since 2025, and storage chip prices have risen between 50% to 700%, indicating a likely continued supply-demand mismatch into the first half of 2026 [2]. Group 2: AI and Its Impact - AI is experiencing a comprehensive resonance from cloud servers to edge computing, with a long-term growth trend that remains undeniable despite short-term investment overheating concerns [3]. - The rapid growth of the AI industry is driving advancements in upstream industries such as computing chips, optical modules, and high-end storage, benefiting domestic companies in China [3]. - AI's development is expected to create new demands and enhance productivity, suggesting a focus on long-term opportunities in AI servers and edge applications [3]. Group 3: Domestic Semiconductor Development - China's semiconductor industry is accelerating its development in response to overseas market pressures, with a focus on upgrading upstream equipment, components, and materials [4]. - China is currently the largest economy in terms of wafer fabrication capacity, with a leading position in new wafer plant construction globally [4]. - The domestic semiconductor industry's progress is crucial for long-term technological advancement, particularly in the context of AI's rapid emergence [4]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Mainline 1: AI Servers - Focus on components such as computing chips, optical modules, and storage, driven by increased capital expenditure for AI server construction [5]. - Mainline 2: AI Edge - Opportunities in AIOT-related components like WiFi, Bluetooth, and video chips, as AI applications expand into consumer products [6]. - Mainline 3: Domestic Supply Chain - Emphasis on equipment, components, and materials, with significant potential for domestic companies to benefit from accelerated localization and long-term growth [7].