高盛复盘2025年中国股市十大趋势：AI重估科技，反内卷修复盈利，慢牛已在路上

Core Insights - The Chinese stock market is at a new starting point after two consecutive years of growth, with a potential "slow bull" market driven by profit growth and valuation recovery [1][3] - Key variables defining future market trends include artificial intelligence (AI), "anti-involution" policies, and capital repatriation [1] Market Performance - A-shares and H-shares recorded annual returns of 16% and 29% respectively in 2025, significantly surpassing initial predictions [1] - The MSCI China Index's forward P/E ratio increased from 9.9x at the beginning of 2025 to 12.5x, while forward EPS declined by 4% [3] Economic Indicators - China's trade performance exceeded expectations, with exports growing by 5.4% year-on-year and the RMB appreciating by 4% against the USD [5] - Strong export performance led to an upward revision of China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 [6] AI Impact - The release of DeepSeek-R1 has transformed the investment narrative for Chinese tech stocks, contributing to a market capitalization increase of over $2 trillion across relevant sectors [7] - AI adoption is projected to drive annual corporate profit growth of 3% over the next decade through cost savings and productivity improvements [7] Export Dynamics - China's export story is evolving from low-cost manufacturing to selling high-value products to emerging markets, with overseas revenue share of listed companies increasing from 12% a decade ago to 16% currently [8] - The "China Going Global Leaders" investment portfolio has risen by 35% this year, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 9 percentage points [8] Consumer Trends - Despite a sluggish real estate market, new consumption sectors such as entertainment and specialty retail have shown strong performance, with an average net profit growth of 28% in the first half of 2025 [9] - New consumption theme stocks have returned 43% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the broader market [9] Policy and Market Sentiment - The "anti-involution" strategy has been elevated to a national level, with potential supply-side reductions expected to enhance profit margins in affected industries by 50% by 2027 [10] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technology, security, and livelihood as key development priorities, with a constructed investment portfolio yielding a 68% return over the past year [11] Capital Flows - Domestic capital is increasingly interested in equity assets, with southbound capital inflows reaching $180 billion this year, a historical record [12] - Global hedge funds have increased their net exposure to China from 6.8% at the beginning of the year to 7.8% by the end of November [13] Diversification Value - The correlation of returns between Chinese and U.S. markets is among the lowest, with Chinese equities trading at a 35% and 9% discount compared to developed and emerging markets [14] - The structural shift towards equity assets is beginning, as domestic investors' allocations to real estate and cash remain high, while equity assets are underrepresented [14]