今年国内成品油调价以“三连跌”收官

Group 1: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustment - The domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel will decrease by 170 yuan and 165 yuan per ton, respectively, effective from December 22, 2025 [1] - This price reduction will result in a savings of 6.5 yuan for filling a 50-liter tank of 92-octane gasoline for private cars and a monthly fuel cost reduction of 266 yuan for heavy trucks in the logistics industry [1] - The year 2025 will conclude with a "three consecutive declines" in fuel price adjustments, totaling 25 rounds of adjustments throughout the year, with gasoline and diesel prices cumulatively down by 915 yuan and 880 yuan per ton, respectively [1] Group 2: OPEC+ Production Strategy - OPEC+ has been a focal point this year, gradually exiting voluntary production cuts starting from April 2025, which has created significant supply pressure in the global oil market [2] - Current remaining production capacity among eight OPEC+ countries is approximately 3.55 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia holding about 2 million barrels per day [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts severe oversupply in the first and second quarters of 2026, with excesses of 4.99 million barrels per day and 4.73 million barrels per day, respectively [2] Group 3: Oil Demand and Market Outlook - The overall outlook for oil demand is constrained by weak economic growth, with limited growth expected in 2026, primarily driven by countries like China and India, while demand in Europe and the U.S. is unlikely to improve [3] - Expectations of oversupply in the oil market for 2026 may continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices, although potential adjustments in OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical developments could alter supply expectations [3] - Oil prices are anticipated to enter a bottom-seeking phase in 2026, with the overall price center expected to decline further, although there may be upward pressure if the macroeconomic environment improves [3]