浙商证券：AI重塑光纤需求结构 供需拐点有望推动量价齐升

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry has been in a downturn for nearly two years due to an imbalance in supply and demand, leading to price and profit pressures. There is a strong consensus among companies to implement "anti-involution" policies to break the current deadlock, with expectations for a turning point in 2026 [1][2][3]. Supply and Demand Imbalance - The supply-demand situation is significantly oversupplied, with polysilicon production capacity expected to reach 3.39 million tons (equivalent to 1,695 GW) by 2024, which is more than three times the new installed capacity of 530 GW for that year [2]. - The industry has experienced a drastic decline in overall profits, with a drop of approximately 95% from the end of 2023 to the present, placing the industry at the brink of profitability [2]. Industry Challenges and Consensus - The photovoltaic industry has faced continuous losses since Q4 2023, resulting in an average employee reduction of 33% in 2024. The average interest-bearing debt ratio has increased from 23% to 31% due to losses and cash flow pressures [3]. - There is a stronger consensus among companies to push for "anti-involution" policies in the current challenging environment, indicating a need for a breakthrough [3]. Silica Material Storage Initiative - The establishment of the silica material storage platform, "Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd.," in December 2025 is expected to lead the industry into a new phase of "market-oriented operation + industry collaborative regulation" [4]. - The concentration of silica material production capacity is high and manageable, with minimal impact on downstream price acceptance. The cost of silica material is crucial, as a price increase of 10,000 yuan per ton corresponds to a 0.02 yuan/W increase in component costs, indicating potential for price increases in the future [4]. Expectations for 2026 and Fund Allocation - The "anti-involution" policy reflects national intent, with various policies being implemented to accelerate progress in the industry [5]. - Leading companies such as Longi, JA Solar, and Hongyuan Green Energy have announced stock incentive and employee shareholding plans, aiming for profitability by 2025/2026, demonstrating confidence in industry development [5]. - Fund allocation has returned to levels seen before the last market surge in 2020, indicating a wait-and-see approach for future growth [5].