疯狂的贵金属！金银一色，铂钯齐飞，短期一个大风险“近在眼前”

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a historic surge, driven by expectations of monetary easing and geopolitical risks, but a significant risk of forced selling looms due to the upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index in January 2026 [1][7][19]. Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals are on track for their strongest annual performance since 1979, with gold prices nearing a 70% increase and silver prices soaring nearly 140% year-to-date [8]. - Platinum and palladium have also seen remarkable gains, with platinum rising to over $2,075 per ounce, marking a nearly 130% annual increase, and palladium reaching approximately $1,802 per ounce, with an expected annual increase of over 95% [12]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The macroeconomic backdrop includes a weakening US dollar and widespread expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, despite officials predicting only one [10]. - Increased military activity near Venezuela has added geopolitical risk premiums to the market [10]. - Chinese trading activity has significantly contributed to the surge in platinum prices, with trading volumes on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange surpassing those of the New York Mercantile Exchange [11][13]. Group 3: Risks and Upcoming Events - JPMorgan warns of a potential technical sell-off during the January 2026 rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, as gold and silver have significantly outperformed the market over the past three years [7][19]. - Passive funds tracking the index, with over $60 billion in assets, may be forced to sell approximately 9% of the total open contracts in silver and about 3% in gold during the rebalancing period [20][21]. - The upcoming sell-off could counteract the traditional seasonal strength typically seen in precious metals at the beginning of the year, leading to potential market volatility [21].