美国制造业回流梦碎？高成本与劳动力断层下的产业链困局

Core Insights - The article discusses the complex realities behind the global restructuring of supply chains, driven by geopolitical factors, which has led to higher costs, slower processes, and increased fragility in manufacturing [1][2]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Manufacturing is not simply "returning" but is becoming "more expensive, slower, and more fragile" due to geopolitical influences [2]. - The interplay of technology, finance, labor, and resources is creating a multi-faceted competition that is reshaping global supply chains [2]. - The rise of regionalization and fragmentation in global supply chains is a significant trend that companies must prepare for [2]. Group 2: Technological Decoupling - The costs of technological decoupling include fragmentation of global innovation and standards, as well as a decline in supply chain integration capabilities [4]. - Increased technological barriers among countries complicate industry cooperation and hinder efforts for standardization [4]. - Geopolitical risks are driving companies to increase liquidity assets, which in turn reduces domestic R&D investments and raises intermediate goods trade costs [4]. Group 3: Labor Market Challenges - Labor rights disputes and structural imbalances in labor markets are significant challenges in the reconfiguration of supply chains [5]. - In traditional outsourcing locations like Mexico, rising strike rates in key industries highlight labor dissatisfaction, which disrupts supply chain continuity [5]. - The mismatch between labor skills and industry demands in economies advocating for manufacturing return is slowing down the restructuring process [5]. Group 4: High Costs of Manufacturing Return - The high costs associated with manufacturing return are undermining the effectiveness of policy incentives [6]. - Structural issues such as high local manufacturing costs and inflation are exacerbating the challenges of returning manufacturing to the U.S. [6]. - The rising cost of capital and declining confidence in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds reflect a broader concern about the investment environment [6]. Group 5: Trade Policy Impacts - High trade barriers can provide short-term benefits but lead to long-term negative consequences for industries [7]. - The reintroduction of tariffs under the Trump administration aimed to reshape global supply chains but had limited effectiveness [7]. - The restructuring of global supply chains involves not only capacity reallocation but also significant adjustments in financial order and settlement systems [7]. Group 6: De-dollarization Trends - Emerging markets are increasingly adopting local currency settlements in trade, reflecting a shift away from reliance on the U.S. dollar [8]. - The weakening of the U.S. credit mechanism is accelerating the de-dollarization process, with countries seeking alternatives to mitigate currency risks [8]. - The share of the U.S. dollar in global central bank reserves has decreased significantly, indicating a long-term trend towards de-dollarization [8]. Group 7: Regional Currency Networks - The establishment of regional currency settlement networks is becoming a complementary effort to the regionalization of supply chains [9]. - Initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership are promoting local currency exchange mechanisms to enhance trade efficiency [9]. - Central bank digital currencies, such as the digital yuan, are emerging as potential new vehicles for cross-border settlements [9]. Group 8: New Competitive Dynamics - The formation of a new competitive landscape reflects the division of standards between the Global North and South, particularly in technology and resources [10]. - The disparity in technological capabilities is creating a polarized global supply chain, complicating innovation and cooperation [10]. - Resource nationalism is becoming a critical factor in global supply chain dynamics, as countries seek to protect their strategic resources [10].