国泰海通:AI应用加速发展 文娱产业周期向上
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-23 03:16

Core Viewpoint - The media industry is at a critical juncture with the accelerated development of AI applications and an upward cycle in the cultural and entertainment sector, with expectations for strong performance in 2025 and continued strength in 2026 driven by product and policy resonance [1] Group 1: Media Industry Performance - The media index has seen a maximum increase of over 40% within the year, with the gaming sector leading the gains [2] - The media index reached its lowest point on January 13, 2025, and its highest on September 25, 2025, with a maximum decline of 6.42% and a maximum increase of 42.24%, resulting in over 50% growth from the lowest to the highest point [2] - The gaming index exhibited the most remarkable performance with a maximum increase of 98.45%, while the film and cinema index benefited from the 2025 Spring Festival, achieving nearly 50% growth [2] - The media industry reported steady revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a nearly 40% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, driven primarily by the gaming sector, which saw a nearly 90% increase in net profit [2] Group 2: AI Applications and Entertainment Industry Trends - The rapid development of AI applications is highlighted by the issuance of the "Artificial Intelligence+" action plan by the State Council in August 2025, indicating that AI has become a national strategic priority, potentially creating new ecosystems, scenarios, and businesses [3] - Domestic IPs such as "Nezha" and "Black Myth: Wukong" have gained popularity not only in China but also globally, showcasing the strong vitality of entertainment content forms like games and films that emerged during the internet era [3] - Popular entertainment content such as "Supernatural Action Group," "Endless Winter," "Nezha: The Devil's Child," and "Zootopia 2" continues to attract significant engagement from players and audiences in 2025 [3] - New policies from the National Radio and Television Administration in August aim to promote innovation in the entertainment industry, injecting new vitality into content creation [3] Group 3: Future Expectations in Gaming and Film - The launch of multiple new games in 2025 has demonstrated high traffic and revenue, which is expected to continue into 2026 [4] - Anticipated new games such as "Honor of Kings World," "Yihuan," and "Famous Generals Kill" are expected to contribute positively to the gaming market in the upcoming year [4] - Following several years of a "cold winter" in the film industry, the implementation of new regulations, including adjustments to policies on "costume drama ratios," "one drama two stars," "40-episode limits," and "banning mid-show advertisements," is expected to lead to a reversal in both policy and performance for the entertainment industry [4]