现货黄金再度刷新历史高点，黄金ETF、上海金ETF上涨，年内涨幅超62%

Group 1 - Spot gold has reached a new historical high, with London gold prices surpassing $4,490 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 70.87%, nearing the largest annual increase since 1979 [1] - Gold ETFs, including various funds, have also seen significant gains, with year-to-date increases exceeding 62% [1] Group 2 - International gold and silver futures prices have reached historical highs, influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker, adding uncertainty to the market [3] - Analysts from UBS noted that gold prices rebounded quickly from a drop at the end of October, solidifying its position as one of the strongest assets this year, driven by geopolitical unrest and changes in the U.S. interest rate environment [3] - Central banks and investors continue to show strong demand for gold, with global central bank purchases expected to reach between 900 to 950 metric tons this year [3] Group 3 - Wall Street is optimistic about gold prices in the coming year, with target ranges between $4,800 and $5,000, driven by strong central bank purchases and ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S. [4] - HSBC's report emphasizes that the U.S. fiscal deficit is a significant factor driving gold demand, as investors increasingly view gold as a hedge against debt sustainability risks and potential dollar weakness [4] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates is seen as dovish, which is favorable for gold, with expectations of further rate cuts increasing [5] - Long-term factors indicate a continued decline in global dollar reserves and rising U.S. fiscal deficits, which are beneficial for gold's monetary attributes [5] - Concerns about domestic physical gold demand due to new tax policies and potential declines in jewelry demand by 2026 highlight the importance of central bank purchases and investment demand to offset these declines [5]