登高稳行：成长乘势聚力，价值重构红利

Group 1 - The core focus of China's economic policy in 2026 will shift towards technological self-reliance and new productivity paradigms, moving away from the traditional real estate and investment-driven growth model [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating resources through a new type of national system, focusing on key technologies such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, and high-end instruments, while also planning for future industries like quantum technology and sixth-generation mobile communications [1] - The structural transformation aims to enhance the security of the industrial chain and create a high-quality supply system, fostering a virtuous cycle among technology, industry, and finance to inject long-term growth momentum into the capital market [1] Group 2 - The logic of stimulating domestic demand is undergoing a profound shift, transitioning from physical consumption driven by subsidies for appliances and automobiles to service consumption as the new engine [1] - China's service consumption currently accounts for less than 50%, significantly lower than the nearly 70% in the United States, indicating substantial room for improvement [1] - The aging population is driving the "silver economy," while younger generations prefer experiences and spiritual satisfaction, further reinforcing the structural upward trend in service consumption, supported by intensive policy initiatives [1] Group 3 - The global liquidity environment is expected to improve significantly in 2026, with the Federal Reserve potentially initiating an unexpected rate-cutting cycle due to increasing fiscal pressures and political cycles [2] - The weakening of the US dollar will create favorable conditions for global risk assets, particularly emerging market equities, benefiting both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2] - Domestic policies focusing on technology and consumption will provide valuation support, potentially leading to a market value reconstruction trend, with quality growth and high-dividend leaders showing investment value [2]