【UNFX财经事件】股市走高未削弱避险需求 黄金维持强势区间

Group 1 - Global market liquidity is tightening as the Christmas holiday approaches, with year-end trading characteristics becoming more pronounced [1] - There is no clear dominance of risk aversion or risk appetite in the market, with funds being allocated across different assets [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties and market pricing of the Federal Reserve's mid-term easing path continue to support gold prices, which are reaching historical highs [1][2] Group 2 - Gold has maintained its role as a core macro hedge asset, with spot gold prices remaining in a historical high range and an annual increase of 70%, marking one of the strongest yearly performances in decades [2] - JPMorgan maintains a bullish outlook on gold, citing tariff uncertainties, central bank purchases, and synchronized demand from ETFs and physical markets as core factors supporting the gold bull market [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average showed resilience, with financial and materials sectors leading the gains, indicating a reallocation towards real economy-related assets in a rate-cut environment [2] Group 3 - Recent inflation data has not provided clear guidance for the market, with missing key inflation data due to government shutdown affecting the CPI report's reference value [3] - Market expectations for further rate cuts are present, but pricing of policy paths has slowed down significantly [3] - Geopolitical risks are increasingly influencing market sentiment, with a cautious stance from Federal Reserve officials regarding the economic outlook [3] Group 4 - Traders are increasing bullish bets on U.S. Treasuries, particularly focusing on the 10-year Treasury yield falling to around 4% [4] - Large asset management institutions are adopting a defensive approach, increasing cash holdings and reducing leverage, indicating heightened caution towards high valuations and geopolitical risks [4] - The current market is characterized by a combination of year-end risk appetite, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical factors, with the stock market maintaining a recovery pattern despite declining liquidity [4]