超八成新币TGE即巅峰，Web3虚假繁荣的病根和解药在这

Core Insights - A significant majority of new tokens launched in 2025 have seen a decline in their fully diluted valuation (FDV) post-token generation event (TGE), with 84.7% of tokens experiencing a drop, and a median decrease of 71% in FDV [1] - The analysis indicates that traditional metrics such as high funding, active communities, and exchange listings do not correlate with token performance, suggesting a shift in evaluation criteria for projects [1][2] - The average return on investment (ROI) for tokens at TGE is alarmingly low, with many tokens failing to maintain value beyond the initial launch [4][7] Funding and Token Performance - There is a negligible correlation (0.04) between funding amounts and token performance, indicating that higher funding does not guarantee better outcomes [7] - Projects with funding between $300,000 and $5 million tend to have higher ROI compared to those with larger funding amounts, suggesting that smaller projects may execute more effectively [8] - Tokens priced between $0.01 and $0.05 show the best survival rates, while those priced above $0.50 tend to perform poorly [15][16] Community and Market Dynamics - The size of a project's community does not predict token performance, with no significant correlation between follower count and ROI [9][11] - Community engagement appears to be driven more by speculative interest rather than genuine product support, leading to volatility in follower numbers [13] - The current market environment indicates that many projects are failing to retain users, with community metrics being unreliable indicators of long-term success [27] Industry Trends and Recommendations - The analysis suggests a need for a paradigm shift in project development, emphasizing the importance of product viability over speculative metrics [28][30] - Companies are advised to focus on realistic funding goals, effective product development, and genuine community engagement to improve chances of success in the evolving market landscape [28][30][32] - The industry must adapt to the realities of market dynamics, with a call for consolidation and strategic partnerships as a means of survival [32][34]