未来10年，人民币将逐步升值，最大机会在哪？

Core Viewpoint - The former mayor of Chongqing and economist Huang Qifan predicts that the RMB will gradually appreciate against the USD over the next decade, potentially reaching around 6 from its current level above 7, driven by the natural results of China's high-quality economic development [1]. Group 1: Economic Transition - China's manufacturing is shifting from "quantity" to "quality," with industrial added value accounting for 32% of the global total, establishing a competitive advantage in sectors like automotive, shipbuilding, high-speed rail, and renewable energy [3]. - The structure of exports has changed significantly, with 60% now being high-end equipment and electronic products, indicating a move away from low-cost competition towards value-added products [3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Independence - China has achieved significant autonomy in its industrial supply chain, with over 80% of export products having more than 80% domestic added value, reducing reliance on processing trade [5]. - This shift means that China is no longer just a processing hub but is exporting with its own technology and brands, necessitating stronger domestic currency support [5]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Dynamics - Despite external pressures, China's actual foreign investment usage has doubled over the past decade, averaging about $120 billion annually, with a shift from quantity to quality in foreign investments [6]. - Foreign enterprises contribute significantly to China's exports, accounting for 30% of total exports and 50% of high-value-added product exports, which supports the demand for RMB [6]. Group 4: Implications of RMB Appreciation - For consumers, an appreciation of the RMB means cheaper imports, potentially lowering costs for education, luxury goods, and travel [8]. - For businesses, it will necessitate upgrades and discourage low-margin export strategies, promoting only those with technology and brand strength to thrive internationally [8]. Group 5: Investment Strategy Adjustments - Investors holding significant USD assets may face depreciation in value when converted back to RMB, while investments in high-quality Chinese assets could yield benefits from both economic fundamentals and currency appreciation [9]. - Huang Qifan emphasizes a gradual appreciation of the RMB, predicting that by 2035, China's per capita GDP in USD could rise from $13,000 to between $25,000 and $26,000, partly due to currency appreciation effects [9].