摩根大通：2026年澳洲联储大概率按兵不动 通胀数据成唯一变量

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy, likely keeping interest rates unchanged throughout 2026, according to Morgan Stanley's analysis [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - The short-term direction of Australia's monetary policy will heavily depend on the quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is seen as a better indicator of core inflation trends compared to monthly data [1]. - The key focus will be on the upcoming release of the CPI for Q4 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1% potentially prompting the RBA to reconsider rate hikes in February 2026 [1]. - Morgan Stanley's baseline forecast suggests a month-on-month increase of 0.8% for the Q4 CPI, slightly below the previous value, indicating no urgent need for further tightening of monetary policy [1]. Group 2: Comparison with Other Central Banks - The RBA's strategy of "data dependency and policy observation" positions it as relatively restrained compared to other major central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan, which have more aggressive stances [2]. - If actual CPI data aligns with Morgan Stanley's baseline forecast, the RBA could be one of the few major developed economy central banks to keep rates unchanged throughout 2026 [2]. - However, the RBA's policy flexibility should not be underestimated in the event of unexpected inflationary pressures [2].