SHENHUA ENERGY(601088)：ACQUISITION OF PARENT ASSETS IS EPS ENHANCING BASED ON HISTORICAL DATA

Core Viewpoint - Shenhua Energy is acquiring twelve assets from its parent company, China National Energy Group, for a total consideration of RMB133.6 billion, which is expected to significantly enhance its coal resources and production capacity [1][3]. Acquisition Details - The acquisition will be financed with 30% of the consideration paid through the issuance of 1,363 million new A shares at RMB30.38, while the remaining 70% will be paid in cash [2]. - The deal is subject to approvals from relevant government authorities and independent shareholders [4]. Impact on Company Metrics - The acquisition is projected to increase Shenhua's coal resources by 65%, recoverable coal reserves by 98%, and coal output by 57% [3]. - Installed power generation capacity will rise by 28%, and production capacity of polyolefin will increase by 2.1 times [3]. - The proforma EPS is expected to enhance by 6% in 2024 and 5% in the first seven months of 2025 [3]. Shareholder Protection - To protect minority shareholders, profit guarantees have been secured for various coal assets for the next three to six years, although there are no guarantees for power and coal-chemical operations [4][6]. Financial Considerations - The target assets will require total capital expenditure of RMB70-80 billion over the next five years, but the operating cash flow from these assets is expected to cover this expenditure [5]. - The consideration values the target assets at 17 times the estimated earnings for 2025 based on annualized earnings for the first seven months of 2025 [4]. Concerns - Approximately 60% of the coal resources from the target assets are located in Xinjiang Autonomous Region, where Shenhua currently has no operations, and coal prices are lower compared to Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi Province, potentially affecting long-term profitability [6]. Rating and Target Price - The company's forecasts and HOLD rating remain unchanged, with a target price for Shenhua's H shares set at HK$42.5, reflecting a 5% average dividend yield for 2025-2027 [7].