2026年，楼市或迎来抛售潮，内行预测：3大原因超出想象

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is facing significant challenges, with predictions of a potential wave of property sales in 2026 due to declining property values, rental income issues, and demographic shifts [1][2][11]. Group 1: Market Predictions - Multiple research institutions predict that the real estate market will experience a turning point in 2026, characterized by a continued decline rather than a rebound in property prices [2][11]. - According to CITIC Securities, historical data suggests that property price downturns last between 5 to 10 years, with declines of 20% to 40% expected [2]. - UBS forecasts that national property prices will stabilize in early 2026, but this stabilization does not imply an immediate rebound [2][14]. Group 2: Investment Returns - The investment return rates in real estate have drastically declined, with rental yields in first-tier cities at only 1.8%, significantly lower than mortgage rates of 3.1% [4]. - The number of second-hand homes for sale has reached a historical high, indicating that many landlords are forced to sell rather than sell out of market confidence [4][7]. - A significant portion of property owners may face negative equity, where property values fall below outstanding loans, prompting a rush to sell [4][11]. Group 3: Demographic Changes - The demographic dividend is rapidly diminishing, with birth rates dropping below critical thresholds, leading to a shrinking base of first-time homebuyers [5]. - The population of young people, who typically represent first-time buyers, is declining sharply, with projections indicating a significant drop in the number of young people entering the housing market [5][11]. - By 2026, many early homebuyers from 2005 to 2015 may consider selling their properties as their mortgages are nearly paid off, further increasing supply while demand decreases [5][11]. Group 4: Regional Disparities - The real estate market in third and fourth-tier cities is experiencing accelerated depreciation due to population outflows, leading to a situation where properties are "priced but unsold" [6][7]. - In contrast, first and second-tier cities maintain some resilience due to economic support and population inflows, but non-core areas are expected to see continued price declines [11][14]. - The disparity in property values within cities is growing, with older and non-core properties facing permanent depreciation [6][7]. Group 5: Policy and Market Dynamics - Policy adjustments in major cities, such as easing purchase restrictions, reflect a lack of effective measures to stimulate demand, as the market continues to face insufficient buyer interest [8][10]. - The financing difficulties for real estate companies persist, limiting their ability to expand and impacting new supply, which does not help in a declining demand environment [10]. - The second-hand housing market is showing signs of decreased seller confidence, with fewer listings indicating a potential future surge in forced sales as financial pressures mount [10][11].