涨疯了！2025金银双双刷新纪录，白银137％涨幅领跑，市场担忧利多耗尽？｜2025中国经济年报

Core Viewpoint - The international gold and silver prices have reached historical highs in 2025, with gold at $4500 per ounce (up 71% year-to-date) and silver at $69.81 per ounce (up 137% year-to-date), indicating a strong bull market for precious metals [2][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices surged significantly in 2025, driven by factors such as U.S. tariffs increasing demand for gold as a safe haven, ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and continuous purchases by global central banks [3][4]. - The price of gold experienced a 30% increase from January to mid-April, followed by a period of consolidation until mid-August, where it remained stable despite geopolitical tensions [3]. - From mid-August to mid-October, gold prices rose by 26% as the Federal Reserve initiated a rate cut cycle and U.S.-China tariff disputes escalated, leading to a market environment favoring gold [4]. Group 2: Silver Price Dynamics - Silver prices have outperformed gold, with a year-to-date increase of 137%, compared to gold's 71%, driven by a return to the gold-silver ratio and inflationary trading [6][7]. - The first half of the year saw silver prices rise alongside gold, but after April, concerns over tariff escalations shifted market dynamics, leading to increased inventory pressures [6]. - A significant increase in silver prices occurred from July to December, with an 87% rise attributed to factors such as the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations and renewed demand in the photovoltaic sector [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Precious Metals - The market anticipates that the bull market for precious metals will continue into 2026, driven by factors such as global monetary system restructuring, ongoing debt cycles, and geopolitical tensions [8][9]. - The expectation of continued fiscal and monetary policy easing in the U.S. is seen as a foundational support for rising gold prices, with potential federal deficits increasing [9]. - Despite potential challenges in the supply-demand structure for silver, historical trends suggest that silver will continue to follow gold's upward trajectory, benefiting from cyclical demand and high elasticity [11].