麦格理：予滔搏(06110)“跑赢大市”评级 目标价降至3.9港元

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie has downgraded the target price for Tmall (06110) by 5% to HKD 3.9, maintaining a "Outperform" rating, primarily due to weak demand impacting revenue forecasts and increasing expense ratios [1] Group 1: Financial Forecasts - The forecast for Tmall's net profit for the fiscal year 2026 has been reduced by 4.2%, while the 2027 forecast has been lowered by 3.9% [1] - For the second half of the fiscal year 2026, revenue is expected to decline by 10.8%, while net profit is projected to increase by 12% to RMB 459 million, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 3% in net profit for the fiscal year 2026 [1] Group 2: Sales Performance - The sales decline in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 aligns with management's expectations and is comparable to the second quarter, with continued pressure on foot traffic in offline stores and weak demand persisting in December [1] - The main brand, Nike, has indicated that a reset in China will take time, and Tmall is closely collaborating with Nike to build a foundation for long-term growth [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The ongoing discounts in online channels may lead to higher growth in the third quarter compared to offline retail channels, resulting in greater discounting across the channel mix [1] - Despite the discounting pressures, the negative impact is believed to be diminishing as the year-on-year change in offline retail discounts has narrowed [1] - Cost control measures are expected to continue alleviating gross margin pressure in the second half of fiscal year 2026 [1]