AI需求推动全球半导体销售额持续增长,半导体设备ETF、半导体产业ETF上涨
Ge Long Hui·2025-12-23 07:04

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing growth driven by AI demand, with significant increases in global semiconductor sales projected for 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Growth Projections - Global semiconductor sales are expected to reach approximately $612.1 billion in the first ten months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.9% [1]. - The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) forecasts a 22.5% increase in global semiconductor revenue to $772 billion in 2025, followed by a 26.3% growth to $975 billion in 2026 [2]. - The semiconductor sales in mainland China are projected to be around $169.4 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 12.5% [1]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Drivers - The semiconductor industry is currently in an upward cycle, with high growth in segments such as AI, storage, and equipment [3]. - The demand for semiconductors is primarily driven by AI servers, AI edge devices, smart wearables, new energy vehicles, and robotics [3]. - The current trends indicate that the domestic advanced process development space is gradually opening up, benefiting from the ongoing construction of domestic computing power and adjustments in the global supply chain [2]. Group 3: Pricing and Inventory Dynamics - Prices for storage modules have increased between 140% to 600% since the beginning of 2025, while storage chip prices have risen between 50% to 700% [3]. - The inventory levels of global leading companies in CPUs, storage, analog, and MCUs are generally at historical highs, but have started to decline since Q2 2025, indicating a healthier inventory situation [3]. - The supply side shows an increase in wafer fab utilization rates, currently around 90%, with rapid growth in semiconductor equipment procurement [3].