短期供应收缩幅度并不大 PTA跟随成本偏强为主

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the domestic futures market for energy and chemicals is experiencing mixed performance, with PTA futures showing a fluctuating upward trend, reaching 5050.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.73% [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, it is noted that there are many existing maintenance activities for PTA, leading to a tight supply situation in the short term. The YS Ningbo plant is expected to restart this week, which may improve market supply expectations [2] - Regarding demand, it is analyzed that downstream demand remains acceptable but is expected to weaken. Polyester operating rates are maintained at high levels, while weaving operating loads continue to decline, with orders showing a weak trend [2] - In terms of inventory, it is reported that PTA factory inventory stands at 3.76 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from last week and a decrease of 0.06 days from the same period last year. Polyester factory PTA raw material inventory is at 7.6 days, an increase of 0.4 days from last week but a decrease of 0.3 days from the same period last year [2] - Looking ahead, it is suggested that the short-term contraction in PTA supply is not significant, and with seasonal demand decline, the market is gradually entering a seasonal accumulation cycle. However, the long-term supply-demand pattern for PTA is expected to improve, supported by strong PX performance, leading to a stronger cost basis for PTA [2]