Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-23 07:06Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares experienced fluctuations and a decline, with the Consumer ETF (159928) dropping by 0.74% and a trading volume exceeding 650 million yuan [1] - The Consumer ETF (159928) has seen a net subscription of over 470 million units during the day, accumulating over 600 million yuan in the last 20 days [1] - As of December 22, the latest scale of the Consumer ETF (159928) exceeded 21.3 billion yuan, leading its peers [1] Group 2: EU Dairy Products Subsidy - The EU has announced a preliminary ruling on dairy products, determining that subsidies exist with a countervailing duty rate ranging from 21.9% to 42.7% [3][7] - Starting December 23, temporary countervailing measures will be implemented on imported dairy products from the EU [3] - The additional countervailing duty is expected to increase import prices, potentially accelerating domestic substitution in the dairy sector [8] Group 3: Domestic Dairy Industry Impact - The countervailing duties are projected to shift the deep processing of dairy products to domestic enterprises, as domestic milk prices are currently lower than international prices [8] - The deep processing sector is anticipated to enhance demand for raw milk, improving the supply-demand balance in the upstream raw milk industry [8] - Domestic dairy companies are actively focusing on deep processing, which is expected to drive demand growth and stabilize the industry [8] Group 4: Consumer Sector Insights - The Consumer ETF (159928) is characterized by its resilience across economic cycles, with the top ten constituent stocks accounting for over 68.55% of its weight [13] - The ETF includes major players such as Yili (10.37%), Kweichow Moutai (9.94%), and Wuliangye (9.50%) [14] - The current valuation of the Consumer ETF (159928) is attractive, with a TTM P/E ratio of 19.4, placing it in the lower 3.13% of the past decade [5] Group 5: Future Consumption Trends - The service consumption sector is expected to grow significantly as China's GDP per capita exceeds $10,000, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [11] - Emerging consumer groups, particularly the Z generation and affluent elderly, are likely to drive demand for service-oriented consumption [12] - Investment opportunities in the service sector are anticipated, particularly in areas such as event economy and AI applications [12]