内心挣扎后妥协？欧洲不敢明抢俄罗斯，核心顾虑藏不住了

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Europe's reluctance to adopt extreme measures against Russia, despite internal pressure from hardliners, reflects a significant compromise that impacts its stance on supporting Ukraine and highlights Europe's apprehension towards Russia's power [2][3]. - The energy security crisis poses an economic shock, with Russia still accounting for 15% of the EU's total natural gas imports in 2023, making it the third-largest supplier. Predictions indicate a 10% increase in LNG imports from Russia in 2024, revealing Europe's dependency as a "soft spot" and undermining confidence in its energy autonomy plans [2][3]. - Internal divisions among EU member states are evident, with Hungary's Prime Minister openly criticizing the EU's abandonment of Russian fossil fuels as a cause for economic slowdown and high energy prices. This dissent poses a direct challenge to the EU's unified stance on sanctions against Russia [3]. Group 2 - Russia's nuclear deterrence strategy has created a sense of urgency in Europe, as Russia has reiterated its willingness to use all means to protect its national interests. The lack of prior diplomatic communication regarding military exercises adds to the tension, signaling a clear warning to European hardliners [3]. - Global public opinion and concerns from allies, particularly the United States, complicate the situation. The U.S. has urged Europe to avoid actions that could trigger a global trust crisis, reflecting internal divisions within the West regarding extreme measures against Russia [4]. - The dynamics of Europe's compromise and the ongoing geopolitical games suggest that if Europe continues to be influenced by hardliners pushing for extreme measures, its energy and economic crises may worsen. Conversely, recognizing the intertwined interests with Russia and seeking dialogue could lead to a potential easing of tensions [4].