2025年避险资产大洗牌：贵金属独领风骚，传统安全港集体失色

Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, precious metals emerged as the biggest winners, while traditional "safe-haven" investments performed poorly amid market turmoil, conflicts, and concerns over an AI bubble [1] - The global economy showed strong growth, with politicians advocating for loose monetary policies, leading to a decline in recession fears and a surge in AI enthusiasm, alongside escalating geopolitical tensions [1] - The commodity index performed poorly due to an oversupply of crude oil, with oil prices dropping by 20% year-on-year, currently at about half of the previous highs [1] Group 2: Defense Sector Performance - For investors concerned about global conflicts, the best investment option was the defense sector, with U.S. aerospace and defense stocks rising by 36% and European counterparts increasing by 55% as Germany and Europe accelerated military rearmament [1] Group 3: Bond and Defensive Asset Performance - Most traditional hedging tools and safe assets underperformed this year, with global "risk-free" government bond indices declining by approximately 1% and total returns slightly exceeding 6% [2] - The Bloomberg Multiverse index, which includes government, supranational, agency, and corporate bonds, saw a price increase of about 1% and total returns close to 7% [2] Group 4: Stock Market Insights - The MSCI All-Country Stock Index's performance was more than double that of government bonds, indicating a strong recovery in the stock market [4] - The S&P 500 index rose by 15% due to the boost from large tech stocks and AI themes, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks by more than double [4] - Defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, and financials saw gains over 10%, but still lagged behind major indices, while the consumer staples sector had a meager increase of about 2% [4] Group 5: Currency Performance - Traditionally safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc underperformed, with the yen dropping approximately 4% against its major trading partners despite initial gains [7] - The Swiss franc maintained its early-year gains, becoming one of the few standout safe-haven assets alongside gold and silver [7] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 12% during the year's most turbulent months, raising questions about its status as a safe-haven asset [7] Group 6: Volatility and Investment Strategies - Strategies involving options and volatility indices failed to yield profits in 2025, with the VIX closing down 2 points from the beginning of the year [9] - The MOVE index for bond market volatility was less than two-thirds of its initial level, indicating a decline in market volatility [9] - Overall, overly cautious investment strategies did not prove profitable this year [10]