Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-23 08:43Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that Tabo (06110) is a leading company in the sports footwear and apparel distribution channel, with improvements in retail efficiency driven by digital transformation and optimized store structures. The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.229 billion, 1.379 billion, and 1.533 billion yuan for FY2026-FY2028, with a current price corresponding to a FY2026 PE of 14 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In FY2026 Q3, the company's total sales (including retail and wholesale) are expected to decline by a high single-digit percentage, with direct store sales area decreasing by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year [1] - The decline in sales is attributed to store closures, with a net reduction of 332 stores in FY2026 H1, bringing the total to 4,688 stores as of the end of November 2025 [1] - The company anticipates that offline sales will continue to face pressure due to fluctuating consumer environments and market competition, although retail sales are expected to outperform wholesale [1] Group 2: E-commerce Growth - The company is expected to continue its growth momentum in e-commerce, leveraging its strong operational capabilities and enhancing its e-commerce system [2] - The strategy includes extending the online reach of physical stores through platforms like Douyin, Xiaohongshu, WeChat Mini Programs, and instant retail [2] - The company aims to improve its operational capabilities in both platform e-commerce and content e-commerce [2] Group 3: Brand and Market Expansion - The company is focusing on expanding its brand presence in the outdoor and running segments, collaborating with brands like Norda, Soar, Ciele, and Norr na to meet diverse consumer needs [3] - A new running ecosystem brand, Ektos, has been established, with a store opened in Shanghai and participation in the Shanghai Marathon to attract runners [3] - The company plans to leverage its marketing and retail advantages to help new brands expand their market presence and share opportunities in the running segment [3] Group 4: Financial Outlook - The company is projected to experience a decline in net profit, with a forecasted revenue decrease of 7% and a net profit drop of around 4% for FY2026 [4] - The overall consumer environment remains volatile, negatively impacting terminal sales [4] - The main brand Adidas is expected to perform relatively well in the Greater China region, with a 6% revenue growth on a currency-neutral basis for the period of July to September 2025, while Nike is still in the process of inventory reduction, with a 16% revenue decline in the same region [4]