TMGM：印度卢比近期为何走弱？进口商购汇需求成关键因素

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Rupee has experienced fluctuations against the US Dollar, influenced by both domestic and external factors, including interventions by the Reserve Bank of India and foreign institutional investor activities [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Fluctuations - The USD/INR exchange rate rebounded after hitting a three-week low of 89.25, driven by Indian importers buying dollars at specific price levels [1]. - The Rupee had previously appreciated significantly, reaching a historical low near 91.55, supported by the Reserve Bank of India's interventions in the spot and non-deliverable forward markets [1]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Activity - From December 17 to 19, foreign institutional investors turned net buyers, increasing their holdings in the Indian stock market by 35.9838 billion Rupees, providing short-term support for the Rupee [1]. - This trend was not sustained, as foreign investors became net sellers on the following Monday, offloading 4.5734 billion Rupees worth of shares, indicating volatility in capital flows [1]. Group 3: External Economic Environment - The US Dollar index fell approximately 0.2%, trading around 98.00, with market attention on the upcoming preliminary GDP data for Q3, which is expected to slow from 3.8% to 3.2% annualized growth [2]. - There is a weak expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with only a 20% probability of a 25 basis point cut in January, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool [2]. - Despite multiple rounds of negotiations, India and the US have yet to reach a trade agreement, maintaining stable demand for dollars from Indian importers, which continues to pressure the Rupee [2]. Group 4: Domestic Economic Indicators - The Reserve Bank of India's monthly report highlighted robust economic growth in November, with strong urban and rural demand, emphasizing the collaborative effect of fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies in maintaining economic resilience throughout the year [2]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - The USD/INR exchange rate is currently trading around 90.2950, with the 20-day moving average at 90.1809, indicating a positive short-term trend as prices remain above this average [4]. - The 14-day Relative Strength Index has retreated from the overbought zone to a neutral level of 54, suggesting a moderation in upward momentum [4]. - Key support is identified at approximately 89.1409, corresponding to an upward trend line formed from 83.8509; maintaining above the 20-day moving average limits potential pullback [4].