IC平台：日美央行政策分歧下，日元兑美元能否持续升值？

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has strengthened against the US dollar due to geopolitical risks, expectations of intervention by the Bank of Japan, and rising interest rate expectations [2][4]. Group 1: Currency Movements - The yen has appreciated against the dollar for the second consecutive day, influenced by market concerns over potential intervention by the Bank of Japan and expectations for interest rate hikes [1][2]. - The USD/JPY exchange rate saw a rebound from just below 156.00, but the potential for significant yen depreciation appears limited due to the overall weakness of the dollar [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Expectations - The market anticipates further interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield reaching a 26-year high following a recent rate increase to the highest level in 30 years [4]. - In contrast, traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice in 2026, which puts downward pressure on the dollar and affects the USD/JPY exchange rate [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Escalating geopolitical tensions, including issues between the US and Venezuela, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and renewed conflicts involving Israel and Iran, are driving funds towards the safe-haven yen [4]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY pair has formed a bearish double top pattern near 158.00, indicating potential for further declines [7][8]. - Key technical indicators suggest weakening bullish momentum, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line and the RSI indicator at 47.40, indicating a neutral stance [8].