2026年全球市场展望：AI投资势头延续，黄金保持温和上涨

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - In 2025, the global macroeconomic environment shows unexpected resilience amid ongoing tariff uncertainties and continuous technological breakthroughs [1] - Precious metals have performed exceptionally well, with COMEX gold rising by 60.84% and Shanghai silver increasing by 112.87% year-to-date [1] - The MSCI global index has increased by 20.70% since the beginning of the year, with emerging markets in Asia outperforming those in Europe and the US [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Allocation - Many foreign institutions expect the equity market to continue its growth trend in 2026 despite uncertainties, with a strong interest in AI-related investments [3] - Major institutions are adopting a cautious approach towards US equities due to high valuations, with a shift towards regional diversification, particularly in Asian markets [4][5] - The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio is close to 24, with tech and consumer discretionary sectors reaching around 30, indicating optimistic future earnings expectations [4] Group 3: Focus on Asian Markets - HSBC and other institutions view Asian markets, including Chinese A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, Singapore, and South Korea, as key areas for investment outside the US [5] - The recovery of IPO activities and strong capital inflows into Hong Kong are seen as significant positive factors for the market [5] - China's advancements in AI are expected to support the performance of both offshore and onshore tech stocks in 2025 [5] Group 4: AI Investment Landscape - AI is recognized as the core theme for the global market in 2026, with a shift in focus from hardware investments to broader ecosystem value creation [7] - AI capital expenditure is projected to exceed $350 billion in 2025 and continue growing to approximately $500 billion in 2026 [7] - The revenue potential of AI-enabled applications is expected to reach $3.1 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 30% [7] Group 5: Chinese Economic Policy and Growth - Institutions predict that China's macroeconomic policy in 2026 will focus on fiscal stimulus and supportive monetary policy, with an expected increase in the fiscal deficit rate [10] - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is anticipated to be between 4.5% and 5% [11] - Structural policy measures, particularly in the consumption sector, are expected to play a significant role in stimulating the economy [10] Group 6: Diversification and Alternative Assets - The high correlation among traditional assets has heightened the need for diversification, with gold and alternative assets becoming key tools for portfolio resilience [12] - Gold is favored as a hedge against geopolitical risks, with expectations of continued price support due to central bank demand and a weak dollar [12] - Investors are encouraged to consider alternative diversification tools such as private equity and hedge funds to navigate increasing market uncertainties [12]