市场观察：年底消费旺季到来，肉类蔬菜价格上涨，为何只有猪价持续低迷？

Core Insights - The demand for pork is increasing as the Southern region enters the curing season, with traditional consumption peaks during New Year and Spring Festival, yet pork and live pig prices remain low [1] - The average price of live pigs nationwide is between 5.5 to 6 yuan per jin, which is below the cost line, while prices for other meats and vegetables are rising [1] - The wholesale price of pork has decreased by 23.7% year-on-year, contrasting with price increases for beef, lamb, chicken, and vegetables [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The warm winter in the Southern region has led to a dispersed demand for cured and sausage products, and the late timing of the Spring Festival has also contributed to a scattered demand for pork [1] - High levels of breeding sows in the previous year have resulted in an abundant supply of market pigs, particularly during the fourth quarter, leading to a low price fluctuation for pork [1] Changes in Farming Practices - There is a notable decline in the number of small-scale pig farmers, with many exiting the market, despite high levels of breeding sows and pig supply [2] - The rise of the代养 (substitute breeding) model allows small farmers to raise pigs for large enterprises, reducing their market risk while enabling large companies to expand without significant infrastructure investment [2] Market Dynamics - The代养 model is contributing to increased pig production capacity and output, which is affecting pork price trends [3] - Large farming enterprises are currently in a "land grab" phase, offering attractive conditions to increase market share, which has accelerated the adoption of the代养 model [3] - As pork prices remain low, the industry may undergo a shakeout, with potential price recovery as some companies scale back or exit the market [3] Cost Management Recommendations - It is crucial for farming operations to focus on cost control, as production costs vary significantly, with efficient farms averaging around 10 yuan per kilogram, while most are around 13 yuan [3]