宏观纵览 | 明年一季度地方计划发债超万亿，积极财政政策靠前发力

Core Viewpoint - Local governments are preparing to issue government bonds early next year to support major project construction, which will lay a solid foundation for economic growth in 2026 and ensure a good start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][5] Group 1: Bond Issuance Plans - At least 14 provinces and cities have publicly disclosed plans to issue government bonds in the first quarter of next year, with a cumulative issuance scale nearing 1.2 trillion yuan [1][3] - Jiangsu plans to issue a total of 105.6 billion yuan in government bonds in the first quarter, including 70 billion yuan in new bonds and 35.6 billion yuan in refinancing bonds [3] - Ningbo is set to issue 32.6 billion yuan in new special bonds and 1 billion yuan in new general bonds in early January [6] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The central government has authorized the early issuance of next year's local government debt limits to facilitate timely bond issuance and support major projects [3][4] - The new local government debt limit for 2025 is set at 5.2 trillion yuan, with the early issuance for 2026 not exceeding 3.12 trillion yuan, adhering to a 60% cap [4] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 2 trillion yuan in refinancing bonds in 2026 to replace existing hidden debts, aiming to alleviate local government debt risks [8] Group 3: Investment and Economic Impact - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 to stabilize investment and promote economic recovery [5] - The early issuance of bonds is expected to effectively drive social investment and amplify investment effects, significantly contributing to economic growth [8] Group 4: Optimization of Bond Management - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to optimize the management of local government special bonds, allowing for more flexibility and autonomy in project approval [9] - Pilot programs for "self-examination and self-issuance" of special bond projects have been implemented in several provinces to enhance issuance efficiency [9]