“算力金属”伦锡月涨超过11%，行业协会发文倡议保持理性谨慎

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices, driven by supply constraints and geopolitical factors, has raised concerns within the industry, particularly affecting downstream companies that rely on tin for production [1][7]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Tin prices have reached new highs, with LME tin increasing by 11.5% and SHFE tin by over 13% since December 2025, with a rise of over 40,000 yuan per ton in just half a month [3][5]. - The price of LME three-month tin futures and SHFE main contracts have both surpassed significant thresholds, reaching 43,900 USD per ton and 348,000 yuan per ton, respectively [5]. - The tin industry is experiencing a supply surplus of approximately 10,000 tons, with the recent price increase attributed more to market sentiment and capital flows rather than fundamental supply-demand dynamics [7]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Supply from major producing countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Myanmar is stabilizing, with domestic tin smelting capacity also being fully utilized, resulting in a production increase of 6.2% year-on-year [6]. - Despite growth in emerging sectors such as photovoltaics and automotive electronics, traditional demand remains stable, with global tin consumption expected to grow by nearly 3% in 2025, slightly below production growth [6]. Group 3: Impact on Industry Players - The rapid price increase has created significant pressure on downstream tin-consuming industries, such as solder, tinplate, and chemicals, leading to challenges in fulfilling long-term contracts and maintaining product quality [4][21]. - Companies like Yunnan Tin Company (000960), Huaxi Nonferrous Metals (600301), and Xingye Silver Tin (000426) are positioned differently within the market, with varying degrees of exposure to price fluctuations and potential earnings volatility [13]. - As of December 23, 2025, the stock prices of these companies have reflected the anticipated earnings growth due to rising tin prices, with annual increases of 103%, 127%, and 218% respectively [19]. Group 4: Industry Recommendations - The tin industry association has called for a rational and cautious approach from all market participants to avoid speculative behavior and to guide prices back to a reasonable range, emphasizing the need for a stable market mechanism [21].