2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-12-23 11:47Core Viewpoint - The lithium industry is experiencing a resurgence in optimism, with expectations for lithium carbonate prices to potentially reach 150,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton in 2024 due to increasing demand from renewable energy and electric vehicles [2][22]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of December 22, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in China reached 99,000 yuan per ton, marking a new high since June 2024 [2]. - Futures prices are even higher, with the LC2601 contract priced at 112,500 yuan per ton and long-term contracts approaching 120,000 yuan per ton [2]. - The lithium demand is projected to grow to around 2 million tons by 2026, achieving a near supply-demand balance [2][22]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium market is transitioning from an imbalance to a tight balance due to reduced capital expenditures in the industry and a significant drop in supply growth from 2026 to 2028 [2][20]. - The average quarterly price of battery-grade lithium carbonate for 2023 was 75,800 yuan, 65,200 yuan, 73,000 yuan, and 84,400 yuan, with the lowest point occurring in Q2 when prices fell below 60,000 yuan [7]. - Supply constraints have been exacerbated by production declines from lithium mica enterprises, with output dropping from 16,100 tons in July to 7,000 tons by November [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations that lithium prices will rebound significantly in 2025 after a period of decline [5][11]. - Major companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium are confident in the demand growth, predicting a 30% increase in demand by 2026, which could lead to price surges if demand exceeds expectations [20][22]. - The overall supply growth is expected to slow down, with new capacity additions becoming increasingly limited, reinforcing the likelihood of a tighter market [20][22].