金价癫了！

Group 1 - The international gold price has reached a new peak, with COMEX gold futures hitting $4530.8 per ounce on December 23, marking a historical high after two months of volatility [1][8] - The driving factors for gold prices include the restructuring of the credit monetary system, heightened demand for hedging against geopolitical and policy uncertainties, and continuous gold purchases by global central banks [1][2] - Major institutions predict that gold prices will exceed $4000 per ounce by 2026, but there is disagreement on whether prices will surpass $5000 per ounce [1][8] Group 2 - Gold has emerged as one of the best-performing assets in the capital market this year, with COMEX gold futures increasing by over 60% year-to-date [2][9] - The retail price of gold jewelry has also surged, with prices for gold per gram reaching around 1403 RMB for major brands as of December 23 [2][9] - Central banks globally have been purchasing gold, with net purchases totaling 634 tons in the first three quarters of this year, although this is lower than the previous three years' highs [2][9] Group 3 - The share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has declined, dropping from 57.79% to 56.32% between the first and second quarters of 2025, marking 11 consecutive quarters below 60% [3][10] - Gold ETFs have become a primary focus for ETF fund inflows, with over 100 billion RMB net inflows this year, accounting for about 10% of total ETF inflows [3][10] - Geopolitical tensions, including the US's "reciprocal tariffs" and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, have highlighted gold's safe-haven attributes [3][10] Group 4 - Some prominent investors have exited the gold market, with notable figures selling their holdings at the $4500 per ounce mark [4][11] - Historical trends indicate that central bank actions, such as large-scale gold sales, can significantly impact long-term gold prices [4][11] - The recent sale of gold reserves by the Russian central bank serves as a critical signal for the market, indicating potential shifts in gold demand [5][11][12] Group 5 - Major financial institutions remain optimistic about gold prices, with Morgan Stanley predicting prices could reach $4800 per ounce by the end of 2026, while JPMorgan forecasts $5055 per ounce based on strong future demand [5][12] - Goldman Sachs anticipates a 14% increase in gold prices by December 2026, projecting prices to reach $4900 per ounce, with ongoing demand from central banks [5][12] - The future trajectory of gold prices hinges on whether central banks will continue to purchase gold and the sustained demand from the market [5][12]