There's certainly a lot of bifurcation going on in consumer spending, says Visa's Michael Brown

Core Insights - Economic concerns have not significantly impacted holiday shopping, with retail sales increasing by 4.2% year-over-year across all payment types, including cash and checks [1] - Despite softer consumer sentiment and confidence compared to the previous year, consumer spending has remained resilient [2] - Even when adjusting for inflation, retail sales are still projected to be up by approximately 2.2% in inflation-adjusted terms [3] Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable bifurcation in consumer spending, with the bottom 25% of income earners experiencing positive wage growth, albeit lower than the previous year [4][5] - A shift in consumer spending from goods to services has been observed, particularly among younger consumers, with increased interest in travel and experiences during the holiday season [6] Future Projections - Tax refunds are expected to be slightly larger in the coming year due to a recent tax cut package, which may boost early-year consumption [7] - Modest inflation is anticipated throughout the year, along with potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, supporting consumer spending growth projected at around 2.8% year-on-year, an increase from the estimated 2.6% for the current year [8]