美元创八年来最差年度表现！专家：明年继续跌

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has experienced a significant decline in 2025, with the dollar index dropping approximately 9%, marking its worst annual performance since 2017 [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Contributing to Dollar Decline - The dollar index saw a staggering drop of 10.8% in the first half of 2025, the largest decline for that period since 1973 [4]. - Key factors for the dollar's decline include expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a rapid narrowing of interest rate differentials with other major economies, and concerns over the US's substantial fiscal deficit and political uncertainty [3][4]. - The imposition of tariffs on global trade partners has weakened the previously strong "American exceptionalism" narrative that supported the dollar [4]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates three times in 2025 has diminished the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [4][6]. Group 2: Future Outlook for the Dollar - Market sentiment remains pessimistic, with several institutions predicting that the downward trend of the dollar index will continue into 2026, with an expected further decline of about 3% by the end of that year [3][6]. - Analysts suggest that despite a potential short-term technical rebound, the structural weakness of the dollar is unlikely to reverse, driven by the divergence in monetary policies among major economies [6]. - The anticipated shift in the Federal Reserve's leadership towards more dovish figures may exacerbate the downward pressure on the dollar [6][7]. Group 3: Performance of Other Currencies and Assets - In contrast to the dollar's decline, non-US currencies have generally strengthened, with the euro appreciating approximately 14% against the dollar, and the Swiss franc and Swedish krona rising by 14.5% and 19%, respectively [4]. - Gold has emerged as a strong performer, with spot gold prices surging nearly 68% throughout the year, reflecting its status as a traditional safe-haven asset [5].