“华尔街老兵”上调金价预期：2026年剑指6000美元！

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is expected to close quietly before the Christmas holiday, with the S&P 500 index showing a modest increase of 1.6% in December, indicating a need for a boost [1] Group 1: Gold and Precious Metals Performance - December saw gold prices rise by 9% and silver by 36%, with both metals poised to potentially reach historical highs [1] - Yardeni Research has raised its gold price targets, predicting it will reach $4,000 by the end of this year and $5,000 by the end of next year, with a long-term target of $10,000 by the end of 2029 [1][2] Group 2: Market Predictions and Correlations - The new gold price target from Yardeni Research exceeds the most optimistic market expectations, such as JPMorgan's forecast of $5,055 per ounce by the end of next year [2] - There is a noted negative correlation between the S&P 500 index and gold prices in the short term, but both are expected to follow the same upward trend in the long term [2] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Geopolitical tensions, including U.S.-Venezuela relations and renewed attacks by Ukraine on Russian ports, are contributing to the rise in gold prices [4] - Concerns about central banks potentially diluting debt through money printing are also seen as a factor driving gold's strength [4][5] Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Market Implications - There are expectations that many American households may receive government rebates of $1,000 to $2,000, which could lead to a significant increase in the federal budget deficit early next year [6] - This potential increase in the deficit may push bond yields higher and trigger a pullback in the U.S. stock market [6]