美国第三季度GDP增长4.3%创两年来最快增速，PCE物价指数2.9%

Core Insights - The U.S. economy exhibited its fastest expansion in two years during the third quarter, driven by strong consumer and business spending along with more stable trade policies [1] Economic Performance - Consumer spending, the largest pillar of the U.S. economy, grew by 3.5% in the third quarter, significantly higher than the 2.5% growth in the second quarter, indicating strong consumer willingness despite borrowing cost pressures [5] - Non-residential investment continued to grow but saw a slowdown from 7.3% in the previous quarter to 2.8% [5] - Residential investment declined by 5.1%, consistent with the previous quarter's decline [5] - Gross Domestic Income (GDI) increased by 2.4%, down from 3.8% in the previous quarter [6] Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The economic report reflects growth momentum despite the withdrawal of Trump-era tariff policies, with the BEA adjusting its data release schedule due to a record-long government shutdown [7] - Economists anticipate that the government shutdown may pressure fourth-quarter growth, but there is cautious optimism for 2026, with expectations of a mild rebound as households receive tax refunds and potential judicial rulings may overturn extensive global tariff policies [7] Federal Reserve Position - Strong economic data aligns with the Federal Reserve's latest forecasts, with Chairman Powell citing supportive fiscal policies, spending on AI data centers, and sustained household consumption as key growth drivers for next year [8] - Some officials remain hesitant to significantly lower borrowing costs due to inflation rates exceeding the Fed's 2% target, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 2.9% in the third quarter [8] Key Economic Indicators - The annualized quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth for the third quarter was 4.3%, surpassing the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8% [9] - The annualized quarter-on-quarter core PCE price index was 2.9%, matching expectations and up from 2.6% [9]