ETFs to Gain as an Estimated 159M Shoppers Flocked to "Super Saturday"

Group 1: Consumer Shopping Trends - A record 158.9 million consumers are expected to have shopped on "Super Saturday," reflecting a 1.1% increase from 157.2 million last year and surpassing the previous record of 158.5 million in 2022 [1] - Despite economic challenges, the late-season shopping surge is anticipated to help retailers close the final quarter stronger, supporting earnings growth and ETFs linked to consumer staples and retail benchmarks [2] - Consumers are shifting towards quality and meaningful gifts rather than just seeking discounts, indicating a "tactical consumer" approach amid a "two-speed" economy [4] Group 2: Retail Sales Outlook - Holiday spending is projected to exceed $1 trillion, but growth will primarily be driven by higher prices rather than increased consumer spending, with S&P Global Ratings forecasting a 4% growth in U.S. holiday sales for 2025 [5] - Analysts expect modestly positive retail sales in 2026, influenced by tariff-related inflation and some growth in consumer staples, despite weak discretionary spending [8] Group 3: ETFs Benefiting from Trends - ETFs focusing on consumer staples and those with robust omnichannel networks, such as Walmart and Amazon, are expected to benefit from the current shopping trends and sustained holiday demand [9][10] - Specific ETFs highlighted include: - VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) with assets of $248 million, top holdings in AMZN (19.53%), WMT (11.79%), and COST (8.06%), and an 11.6% year-to-date increase [11] - ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) with an average market cap of $179.17 billion, top holdings in AMZN (23.35%), BABA (11.44%), and EBAY (8.11%), and a 31.9% year-to-date surge [12] - Global X E-commerce ETF (EBIZ) with net assets of $51 million, top holdings in Expedia (6.10%), SHOP (5.57%), and BABA (4.87%), and a 19.4% year-to-date increase [13] - Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA) with net assets of $1.33 billion, top holdings in WMT (14.48%), COST (11.96%), and Procter and Gamble (10.05%), and a 2.4% year-to-date gain [14]