美国消费者信心连续五个月下滑，追平2008年以来最长连跌纪录

Core Insights - The consumer confidence index has declined for the fifth consecutive month, matching the longest streak since the 2008 financial crisis, reflecting households' concerns over high prices, the job market, and economic outlook [1] - Despite a slight recovery in the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, businesses have turned optimistic about the next six months, with significant increases in business conditions, new orders, and employment expectations [1] Consumer Confidence - The Conference Board's composite economic index fell from 92.9 to 89.1, marking the longest decline since 2008 [1] - The current conditions index dropped to 116.8, the lowest since February 2021, with a 9.5-point decrease [1] - The future expectations index remained at 70.7, below the 80 threshold that typically indicates a recession, for the 11th consecutive month [1] Employment and Business Outlook - Consumer sentiment regarding current business conditions turned slightly negative in December, with 18.7% rating conditions as "good," down from 21.0% in November [3] - The perception of the job market also weakened, with the percentage of consumers believing jobs are "plentiful" dropping from 28.2% to 26.7% [3] - The proportion of consumers expecting job opportunities to "decrease" rose from 26.8% to 27.4% [3] Inflation and Policy Concerns - Key concerns among consumers include prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and political issues, with increased attention to immigration, war, and personal finance matters [4] - Despite an overall pessimistic outlook, the degree of pessimism has eased compared to November, possibly due to reduced negative comments on prices and inflation [4] - Consumer expectations for inflation over the next 12 months decreased after a rise in November, while optimism regarding stock market performance reached its highest level since January 2025 [4] Consumer Spending Trends - Consumers are becoming more cautious about purchasing big-ticket items, with an increase in those planning not to buy [5] - Expectations for new car purchases continue to decline, while second-hand car purchase plans are on the rise [6] - Overall spending trends are shifting towards lower-priced items and necessary services, with a decline in vacation plans and travel intentions [6] Income and Demographic Insights - The net perception of current household financial situations has fallen into negative territory for the first time in four years, although future financial expectations are the most positive since January [7] - Confidence has declined across all age groups, but younger consumers remain more optimistic compared to older groups [7] - The proportion of consumers believing a recession is "unlikely" has slightly increased, while those who think a recession is "somewhat likely" has risen again [7]