高盛顶级交易员年终复盘：金银铜历史性新高，股债分歧加剧，美股“结构性分化”.......

Group 1: Commodity Market Performance - In 2025, the global commodity market is expected to perform exceptionally well, with gold prices rising by 68% and silver prices soaring by 139%, marking the best annual performance since 1979 [1][3][6] - Copper prices also achieved a decisive breakthrough to historical highs, indicating a structural increase in demand for physical assets among investors [9] Group 2: Stock and Bond Market Divergence - The U.S. stock and bond markets are sending contrasting economic signals, with the bond market reflecting a cautious narrative while the stock market is pricing in an anticipated economic acceleration that has not yet been validated by macroeconomic data [1][10][12] - The correlation within the U.S. stock market has been decreasing over the past six months, indicating high dispersion, which is expected to continue into the next phase [2] Group 3: Structural Features of the U.S. Stock Market - The divergence between growth and value stocks in the U.S. market is deepening, with the Nasdaq 100 index rising relative to the Russell 2000 small-cap index, reinforcing the "stronger gets stronger" market characteristic [15] - A significant structural change may occur as the correlation between JOLTS job openings data and the S&P 500 index could be officially broken in 2025 [16] Group 4: Market Volatility and Hedge Fund Performance - The six-month realized volatility of the S&P 500 index is at a low level, confirming the recent high dispersion in the market [19] - Goldman Sachs' hedge fund VIP basket has shown stable long-term performance, maintaining a clear and stable excess return pattern relative to the S&P 500 index, making 2025 a standout year for the hedge fund industry [21]