2026 年展望—浮沤危悬？ 多元布局！

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that global risk assets are expected to lead in 2026, with increasing market differentiation and a focus on diversified investment strategies around three key themes while being cautious of four major risks [1][6]. Macroeconomic Overview - The core scenario anticipates a 60% probability of a soft landing for the US economy, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates by 75 basis points to 3.0% by the end of 2026. Factors supporting growth include easing trade tensions, increased infrastructure and defense spending in Germany, and targeted stimulus policies in China. There is a 15% risk of a hard landing and a 25% risk of an "unlanding" scenario, with inflation stabilizing but remaining above pre-pandemic levels [1][6][65]. Investment Themes - Theme 1: Stock Market Growth Driven by AI The stock market is expected to rise alongside discussions around artificial intelligence, with AI-driven profit growth offsetting some valuation pressures. The recommendation is to overweight US and Asian (excluding Japan) stocks, with a focus on technology, healthcare, and utilities sectors [2][21][23]. - Theme 2: Emerging Market Debt Outperforming Developed Markets Emerging market debt, both in USD and local currencies, is seen as attractive due to improved fiscal fundamentals, yield advantages, and expectations of a weaker dollar, which can help mitigate interest rate risks in developed markets [2][28][23]. - Theme 3: Diversification Tools Highlighted Gold is expected to continue its upward trend, with target prices of $4,350 per ounce in 3 months and $4,800 per ounce in 12 months. Alternative investment strategies and currencies like the Japanese yen and offshore RMB are also considered important diversification tools [2][30][31]. Asset Class Allocation - In the bond sector, preference is given to emerging market debt and developed market investment-grade government bonds, with opportunities seen in US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and short-term high-yield bonds. In the stock sector, there is an underweight position in European (excluding the UK), Japanese, and UK stocks, while overweighting US tech stocks, high-yield stocks of non-financial state-owned enterprises in China, and the Hang Seng Tech Index [2][22][23]. Risk Factors - Key risks include underperformance of AI, potential chain reactions from credit events, shifts in Federal Reserve policy, and unexpected hawkish stances from the Bank of Japan, which could lead to market volatility [3][23][33].