UBS Global Wealth's Alan Rechtschaffen: Tariff doomsayers were 'just wrong'

Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a period of clarity and normalization in 2026, following a foggy and uncertain 2025, which is reflected in current market highs [2][6] - The administration's policies, particularly regarding tariffs, have positively influenced GDP and market performance, contradicting previous doomsday scenarios [4][6] Risks and Challenges - Policy risks remain a concern, but the focus is shifting towards unforeseen risks that could impact market optimism [3][4] - Potential inflationary pressures from tariffs are anticipated in the first quarter, but they are considered manageable within a strong economy [5][6] Monetary Policy - There is ongoing discussion about the appropriateness of cutting rates next year, especially with current GDP levels, as the Fed is on a trajectory to lower rates [7][9] - The administration is exploring innovative fiscal reforms, which may influence future monetary policy and economic conditions [8][9] Economic Innovations - The potential for transformative technologies such as longevity, AI, and power is highlighted, suggesting that these innovations could lead to a robust economy and possibly higher interest rates in the future [9]